By Olly Buston
Perhaps the greatest accolade Future Advocacy has ever received in our 7 year history was when team member Matt Fenech was awarded ‘Geek of the Week’ by ITV’s ‘Peston’ show for our work predicting how AI-fuelled automation would hit jobs across the UK, At the time we didn’t give much thought to whether the machines were coming for our own jobs. But does the high profile launch of new AI tools such as ChatGPT mean we were remiss in assuming campaigners and lobbyists were safe from automation?
Machine writing
Much of our jobs involve writing. Writing a campaign strategy. Developing messages for different audiences. Writing a briefing for a meeting. Writing an article for a newspaper. Writing a script for a campaign film. So just how good at these tasks are the new tools?
I tested out ChatGPT on some of these things, using an imaginary campaign calling for a new tax on cakes and confectionery as a case study. Here’s how it did (the full transcript of our interaction can be found at the end of this blog).
Writing a campaign strategy (ChatGPT rating 6/10)
I was initially blown away by the 7 point plan ChatGPT produced when I asked it to “write a strategy to persuade the UK government to adopt a tax on cakes and confectionaries”. And I could strengthen the strategy with additional prompts, for example by asking for a greater focus on persuading backbench conservative MPs, or a greater focus on Red Wall seats.
But on further reflection there was nothing new or innovative that someone with some experience in the field would not have thought of. This is not surprising because ChatGPT has been trained on historic data of things that have been written about in the past. The strategy would be a great straw man to kick off a strategy-development brainstorm however.
ChatGPT also did a good job of coming up with a list of the key types of stakeholders for the campaign, and I could prompt it further to give more details about priority political posts and officials. However the cut-off point for the training data from which ChatGPT learned is 2021, so ChatGPT was not able to provide information about who the key individuals are today.
Developing messaging for different audiences (ChatGPT rating 7/10)
When asked what messages would help persuade a right-wing Conservative MP to support the introduction of a new tax on cakes and confectionaries, ChatGPT’s answer was pretty impressive. It summarised that “By highlighting the economic benefits, the health benefits, the positive impact of the existing sugary drinks industry levy, presenting the tax as a market-based solution, addressing concerns about the potential regressive nature of the tax, emphasising the importance of personal responsibility, showing the positive impact on the Red Wall seats and appealing to the party’s principles, you can increase the chances of persuading a right-wing Conservative MP to support the introduction of a new tax on cakes and confectionaries.”
Arguably the toughest nut to crack for this campaign would be addressing the potential regressive nature of the tax. So I asked ChatGPT for help with that. This is what it came up with:
But then ChatGPT gave me the wise counsel that “even with these arguments, the MP may still not support the tax.”
Writing a briefing for a political meeting (ChatGPT rating 6/10)
When asked to write a briefing for a meeting to persuade Rishi Sunak to support the tax we immediately hit a snag as the cut off point for all ChatGPT’s knowledge was 2021, when Rishi was Chancellor.
That said, ChatGPT did come up with some solid arguments. A weakness is that ChatGPT doesn’t prioritise very well between the statements it puts forward. This is reinforced by the fact that it does not give references which would add greater credibility to its work. An AI academic research assistant like Elicit could be used in tandem to overcome this weakness.
Writing an article for a newspaper (ChatGPT rating 5/10)
My attempt to get ChatGPT to write an article in the style of chef Nigella Lawson for the Telegraph, supporting the introduction of a tax on cakes and confectionery, fell a bit flat. It was clunky and didn’t really sound like Nigella apart from a few clichés. Nick Cave would surely agree, having said of a song written by ChatGPT in the style of Nick Cave that “It sucks”.
I think mimicking a particular individual’s words is some way off, other than in a slightly ham-fisted way. More generally it seems ChatGPT lacks a bit of flair when it comes to writing in a compelling and creative voice. There is a sense that it reproduces the average and everyday, rather than creating the exceptional and innovative.
Writing a script for a campaign film (ChatGPT rating 4/10)
Public health campaigners have for years been trying to reframe the debate about healthy food away from negative images and shock tactics. ChatGPT clearly didn’t get the memo and steamed straight in with clichés and fat-shaming tropes. I’m sure this could be ironed out by clever prompts. But I struggled to get it right and by this stage I wanted to escape back to the real world.
The verdict – should we believe the hype?
ChatGPT and similar tools are not going to lead to mass redundancies of campaigners and lobbyists any time soon. There remain many tasks that humans are better at, at the creative and innovative end of the spectrum. And the fact that ChatGPT’s training data only goes up to 2021 hinders its usefulness at a time when a week sometimes feels like a lifetime in politics. We’ve had two new prime ministers and three new chancellors since then.
Have no doubt that this is a powerful tool, however. ChatGPT can be helpful with more routine tasks and in writing first drafts and creating straw men to riff off. It might not help you with the next thing, the new thing, the creative thing. But it will help you get up to speed at lightning speed with ideas that are already out there. Clearly there are lots of uses in training.
In the immediate term campaigners and advocates who are able to harness the power of these tools to full effect will have an edge on their peers. Prompting AI tools like these to get the most useful response will become a valued skill. It’s worth remembering that although computers have been better at chess than humans ever since Big Blue v Kasparov in 1997, teams combining humans and computers remained superior for many years.
In the longer term, the gap between machine and human capabilities will inevitably narrow as computing power increases, programming challenges are overcome, and training data sets grow. One obvious and probably inevitable development will be a tool like ChatGPT that is trained on data in near real-time. This will make it massively more powerful and perhaps also more erratic and risky.
One of the great insights into the impact of technological change was made by Stanford University computer scientist Roy Amara. Some time in the 60s (or maybe 70s) he said that we tend to overestimate the impact of a new technology in the short run, but we underestimate it in the long run. There are countless examples where this seems to be the case. It makes sense if you imagine yourself walking up an exponential curve of change. The path doesn’t feel too steep initially. But after a while you realise you have climbed a mountain. That’s compound interest for you.
So I suspect after the initial hype about ChatGPT, articles will appear from savvy cynics crowing that not much has changed. And then shortly after that we will realise that everything has changed. There will be significant ethical implications of this… but that’s another blog.
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Annex: ChatGPT SCRIPT (this is a recreation of the original conversation and is not identical to the first iteration)
Write a strategy do persuade the UK government to adopt a tax on cakes and confectionaries
Add more on persuading backbench right wing conservative MPs
Tailor the strategy to Red Wall MPs
Write a list of key stakeholders a for strategy to persuade the UK government to adopt a tax on cakes and confectionaries
Which politicians would be most important for this strategy?
It’s important to note that different politicians have different priorities and may have different views on this policy, so it’s important to tailor your message to address their specific concerns and to build a relationship with them.
Who would be the one most important politician?
It would be difficult to identify one specific politician as the most important in this strategy, as the adoption of a tax on cakes and confectionaries would likely involve a range of politicians and government officials at different levels. However, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who is the head of the UK Treasury and responsible for the government’s economic and financial policy, would likely play a central role in deciding whether to implement the tax, and would be one of the most important politicians to engage with in this strategy. Additionally, the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, who is responsible for the National Health Service and public health, would also be a crucial stakeholder as the tax proposal is related to public health and the NHS.
Who are the key officials and advisors for this strategy?
It’s worth noting that the officials and advisors may change over time and the government’s priorities might also change, so it’s important to stay updated on who is in charge of the relevant government departments and who the key advisors are.
Who is the current chancellor of the exchequer?
As of my knowledge cutoff in September 2021, the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom is Rishi Sunak. He has been in office since February 2020 and is a member of the Conservative Party. He is also the Member of Parliament for Richmond (Yorks). He was appointed Chancellor by Prime Minister Boris Johnson as part of a cabinet reshuffle. Sunak is responsible for the UK’s economic and financial policy, and as Chancellor he presents the annual budget to Parliament and oversees the Treasury.
What messages would help persuade a right wing Conservative MP to support the introduction of a new tax on cakes and confectionaries?
What ideas do you have for overcoming concerns about the potential regressive nature of the tax
It’s important to note that some of the above strategies may not be suitable for every situation and it’s important to consider the specific context and the characteristics of the population that would be affected by the tax.
Write a briefing for a meeting to persuade Rishi Sunak to support the tax on Cakes and Confectionaries
Meeting Briefing: Persuading Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer, to Support a Tax on Cakes and Confectionaries
Purpose: To persuade Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer, to support the introduction of a new tax on cakes and confectionaries in order to improve public health and reduce healthcare costs.
Background: The United Kingdom is facing an obesity epidemic, with over two-thirds of adults and one-third of children classified as overweight or obese. The high consumption of sugary foods and drinks is a major contributor to this problem, and there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that implementing a tax on these products could help to reduce consumption and improve public health.
Key Points to Address:
It’s important to be well-prepared and have a clear message, but also to be open to discuss and negotiate, as the Chancellor may have concerns or questions. It’s also important to understand the Chancellor’s priorities and tailor your message accordingly.
Write an article in the style of Nigella Lawson for the Telegraph supporting the introduction of a tax on cakes and confectionary
“Sweet Treats, Bitter Realities: Why We Need a Tax on Cakes and Confectionary”
As a food writer and lover, I have always had a soft spot for cakes and confectionery. But as someone who is also deeply concerned about public health, I believe it’s time for us to have a serious conversation about the role these sweet treats are playing in our growing obesity epidemic.
The facts are clear: the high consumption of sugary foods and drinks is a major contributor to the problem of obesity in the UK, and there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that implementing a tax on these products could help to reduce consumption and improve public health.
I understand that the idea of taxing cakes and confectionery may be a bitter pill to swallow for some. But the truth is, we need to take bold action to address the obesity epidemic, and a tax on these products is a market-based solution that can help to encourage healthier choices without infringing on personal freedom.
Some may argue that a tax on cakes and confectionery would be unfair to low-income households. But I believe that by using the revenue generated from the tax to fund public health initiatives, such as nutrition education programs and physical activity initiatives, we can offset the impact on these households and make healthy food more affordable for them.
We can also consider a phased approach, introducing the tax gradually to give households and businesses time to adjust and to monitor its effectiveness. We can also create exemptions for certain products, such as basic staple foods that are important for low-income households and are less likely to contribute to obesity.
It’s also important to note that we are not alone in this. Many other countries have implemented similar taxes and have seen positive results in terms of improved public health and reduced healthcare costs.
As a nation, we have a responsibility to take care of ourselves and each other. And while I will always have a special place in my heart for cakes and confectionery, I firmly believe that a tax on these products is a necessary step towards a healthier, happier future for all of us.
It’s time for us to come together and have a serious conversation about the role that cakes and confectionery are playing in our growing obesity epidemic. And I hope that with the support of the government and the public, we can take the necessary steps to address this problem and create a healthier, happier future for all of us.
Write a script for a campaign film supporting the introduction of a tax on cakes and confectionary in the UK
Narrator: “We all love a sweet treat every now and then. But have you ever stopped to think about how much sugar we’re consuming?”
(Opening shot of a child eating a cake, followed by shots of adults eating various sugary foods and drinks)
Narrator: “The truth is, the high consumption of sugary foods and drinks is a major contributor to the obesity epidemic in the UK.”
(Shot of a doctor talking to a patient)
Doctor: “Obesity is a major health concern in the UK, and it’s a problem that’s only getting worse.”
(Shot of a person struggling to climb stairs, followed by shots of people with various health problems)
Narrator: “But what can we do to address this problem? Well, there is a solution that’s been proven to work in other countries.”
(Shot of a news clip of a country introducing a sugar tax)
Narrator: “A tax on sugary foods and drinks. It’s a market-based solution that can help to encourage healthier choices without infringing on personal freedom.”
(Shot of a family shopping in a supermarket, with the price of sugary foods and drinks increasing on the shelves)
Narrator: “And write a script for a 30 second campaign film supporting the introduction of a tax on cakes and confectionary in the UK
Narrator: “We all love a sweet treat, but have you ever stopped to think about how much sugar we’re consuming?”
(Opening shot of a child eating a cake, followed by shots of adults eating various sugary foods and drinks)
Narrator: “The high consumption of sugary foods and drinks is a major contributor to the obesity epidemic in the UK.”
(Shot of a doctor talking to a patient)
Doctor: “Obesity is a major health concern, and it’s a problem that’s only getting worse.”
(Shot of a person struggling to climb stairs, followed by shots of people with various health problems)
Narrator: “But there’s a solution that’s been proven to work. A tax on sugary foods and drinks.”
(Shot of a news clip of a country introducing a sugar tax)
Narrator: “It’s a market-based solution that can encourage healthier choices without infringing on personal freedom.”
(Shot of a family shopping in a supermarket, with the price of sugary foods and drinks increasing on the shelves)
Narrator: “Let’s take action to improve our health. Support a tax on sugary foods and drinks.”
(Closing shot of the word “Support” on a black background)
Make it more positive, don’t use the word obesity
Narrator: “We all love a sweet treat, but have you ever stopped to think about how much sugar we’re consuming?”
(Opening shot of a child eating a cake, followed by shots of adults eating various sugary foods and drinks)
Narrator: “The high consumption of sugary foods and drinks is a major contributor to poor health in the UK.”
(Shot of a doctor talking to a patient)
Doctor: “We all want to live a healthy and happy life, and making small changes in our diet can make a big difference.”
(Shot of a person climbing stairs with ease, followed by shots of people engaging in healthy activities like running and cycling)
Narrator: “But there’s a solution that’s been proven to work. A tax on sugary foods and drinks.”
(Shot of a news clip of a country introducing a sugar tax)
Narrator: “It’s a market-based solution that can encourage healthier choices without infringing on personal freedom.”
(Shot of a family shopping in a supermarket, with the price of sugary foods and drinks increasing on the shelves)
Narrator: “Let’s take action to improve our health. Support a tax on sugary foods and drinks.”
(Closing shot of the word “Support” on a green background, with a healthy food in the foreground)
Don’t use images of people eating unhealthy foods
Narrator: “We all love a sweet treat, but have you ever stopped to think about how much sugar we’re consuming?”
(Opening shot of a child playing with a cake, followed by shots of healthy foods like fruits and vegetables)
Narrator: “The high consumption of sugary foods and drinks is a major contributor to poor health in the UK.”
(Shot of a doctor talking to a patient)
Doctor: “We all want to live a healthy and happy life, and making small changes in our diet can make a big difference.”
(Shot of a person climbing stairs with ease, followed by shots of people engaging in healthy activities like running and cycling)
Narrator: “But there’s a solution that’s been proven to work. A tax on sugary foods and drinks.”
(Shot of a news clip of a country introducing a sugar tax)
Narrator: “It’s a market-based solution that can encourage healthier choices without infringing on personal freedom.”
(Shot of a family shopping in a supermarket, with the price of sugary foods and drinks increasing on the shelves)
Narrator: “Let’s take action to improve our health. Support a tax on sugary foods and drinks.”
(Closing shot of the word “Support” on a green background, with a healthy food in the foreground)